IIP, inflation numbers bring cheer, but their sustainability is the key.
The 30-share Sensex ended 209 points down at 20,282 after hitting an intra-day low of 20,262 and the 50-share Nifty ended 61 points down at 6,018 after touching an intra-day low of 6,012.
The broader markets too ended weak- BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices fell by nearly 1% each.
A careful reading of the national income accounts suggests that after a strong recovery from the pandemic, there has been a significant ebbing of dynamism over the last three quarters to more modest levels recently, note Arvind Subramanian and Josh Felman.
Retail inflation, based on Consumer Price Index, was at 10.36 per cent in May.
Days before Diwali, the monthly economic review by the finance ministry has highlighted moderation in urban demand, softening consumer sentiments and limited footfall as areas that need to be watched. In its review, released on Monday, the ministry also noted the early signs of artificial intelligence displacing workers, as described in anecdotal reports. The commentary from several large consumer goods companies, including Nestl India, Hindustan Unilever, and ITC, in their recent quarterly earnings, has been around a sluggish urban demand. Rural consumption, however, has mostly seen a revival, the companies pointed out.
The rupee depreciated by 37 paise to close at 79.62 against the US dollar on Thursday despite sustained foreign capital inflows and a positive trend in equities. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 79.22 and saw an intra-day high of 79.22 and a low of 79.94 against the American currency. It finally ended at 79.62, down 37 paise over its previous close of 79.25.
In January, consumer price index-based inflation rose for the fourth consecutive month. It stood at 10.78 per cent, against 10.56 per cent in December.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday said the country's economic growth remains a priority for the government, as inflation has come down to a manageable level. Job creation and equitable distribution of wealth remain the other focus areas, she said at India Ideas Summit. "Some of course are red-lettered (priorities), some may not be. Red-lettered ones would of course be jobs, equitable wealth distribution and making sure India is moving on the path of growth.
Consumer durables shrank year on year, which could suggest to observers that spending confidence is yet to return to the economy.
Falling food prices notwithstanding, consumer inflation will remain high during the current fiscal because of high cost of housing and services as well as the increasing inflationary pressures from smaller cities, Goldman Sachs said in a report on Tuesday.
The government has revised the wages for unskilled manual workers under the national rural employment guarantee scheme by indexing it to inflation, Rural Development Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh said.
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Declining prices of food items like vegetables pulled down retail inflation to 5.59 per cent in July, bringing it back within the RBI's comfort zone after two months, official data showed on Thursday. The retail inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) had remained above 6 per cent during May and June. The government has mandated the RBI to maintain retail inflation at 4 per cent, with a margin of 2 per cent on either side. The CPI based inflation stood at 6.26 per cent in June 2021 and 6.73 per cent in July 2020.
In case of rural workers, the index recorded an increase between 1 to 7 points in 12 States, and a decrease between one to 8 points in 8 states.
Citing the sharp rise in food prices, economists at a foreign bank have forecast a steeply higher retail inflation print for July, pegging it at 6.7 per cent, up 190 basis points from the previous month. Deutsche Bank India economists led by chief economist Kaushik Das, in a report on Monday ahead of the monthly inflation print and the Reserve Bank's monetary policy review, said that the July consumer price-based inflation index (CPI) is likely to print at 6.7 per cent on-year as against 4.8 per cent in June. The Reserve Bank is widely believed to leave the key interest rates unchanged for the fourth time in its upcoming bi-monthly monetary policy decision on August 10.
His comments poured cold water on hopes that the central bank may have a rethink on rates after the wholesale price index, the main inflation gauge, rose a lower-than-expected annual 7.25 per cent in June, its slowest rise since January, helped by moderation in fuel prices.
'A 10 to 15 per cent allocation to gold in portfolios reduces risk without compromising on potential returns.'
The festive season will mean business for the steel industry as it is the time when automotive and consumer appliance companies bump up demand to prepare for higher sales, experts have said. Ranjan Dhar, chief marketing officer at ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India (AM/NS India), said that bookings by auto and consumer appliance industries are 20 per cent higher ahead of the festive season compared to last year. "While this could be for a couple of months, it could normalise later at approximately 10 per cent," he said.
The ministry of labour & employment on Friday announced a hike in variable dearness allowance for more than 1.5 crore workers in the central sphere by Rs 105 to Rs 210 per month. The hike, which will be effective from April 1, 2021, will also result in an increase in rate of minimum wages for central sphere employees and workers. It will be for scheduled employment in central sphere and applicable to the establishments under the authority of central government, Railway administration, mines, oil fields, major ports or any corporation established by the central government. These rates are equally applicable to contract and casual employees/workers.
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday raised its inflation projection to 5.1-4.7 per cent for the second half of the current fiscal on the back of spike in prices of vegetables such as onion and tomatoes.
Consumer price inflation touched a nine-month high of 11.24 per cent last month.
Ahead of Diwali festival, the Union Cabinet on Wednesday increased the dearness allowance (DA) and dearness relief by 4 per cent effective July 1, 2022, benefiting 41.85 lakh central government employees and 69.76 lakh pensioners. The additional instalment of DA and dearness relief (DR) is an increase of 4 per cent over the existing rate of 34 per cent of basic pay/pension. The combined impact on the exchequer on account of both DA and DR would be Rs 12,852.5 crore per annum, said Information and Broadcasting Minister Anurag Thakur while briefing reporters about the decisions of the Union Cabinet.
The RBI expects inflation in 2015 to hover around 6 per cent -- its target for January 2016 -- and sees risks to the target evenly balanced.
India's manufacturing sector growth fell to a joint 11-month low of 56.5 in November, restricted by competitive conditions and inflationary pressures amid a softer increase in factory orders, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell from 57.5 in October to 56.5 in November, signalling a softer improvement in the health of the sector. However, the pace of growth remained above its long-run average.
According to data released on Thursday, Wholesale Price Index-based inflation rose to seven per cent in October from 6.46 per cent in September.
The food-price segment in the WPI has been growing at 8.3 per cent, much higher than the rise in the index for manufactured articles. In fact, segments like minerals and fuel have witnessed a decline in the WPI and have pulled the inflation down. The rise in food prices affects the common man more than the increase in prices of any other item.
'If rate cuts happen, bond yields will come down and investors will make mark-to-market capital gains on them.'
While the average CPI hovers at 10 per cent for five years now, our tax benefits are almost a decade old.
From the 30-share pack, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Motors, Axis Bank, Nestle India, Asian Paints, ITC, Reliance Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra, IndusInd Bank and State Bank of India were among the laggards. Larsen & Toubro, Tata Steel, JSW Steel, HDFC Bank, Adani Ports, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bharti Airtel and PowerGrid were among the gainers.
Gold prices rallied Rs 910 to hit a fresh all-time high of Rs 83,750 per 10 grams in the national capital on Wednesday due to heavy buying from jewellers and retailers, according to the All India Sarafa Association. The precious metal of 99.9 per cent purity had settled at Rs 82,840 per 10 grams in the previous trading session.
The wholesale price-based inflation hovered over seven per cent through 2012, down from 10 per cent inflation seen in the previous year, reflecting the impact of tight money policy of the Reserve Bank of India.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday projected inflation to come down below the upper threshold level of 6 per cent by March quarter of the current fiscal. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the central bank will keep 'Arjuna's eye' (focus) on the evolving inflation dynamics and will remain 'nimble and flexible' to deal with the price situation. Global commodity prices, including crude oil, have undergone some downward correction, but uncertainty continues to surround the near-term outlook in view of the prolonging geo-political hostilities. Moreover, the resurgence in domestic services sector activity could also lead to price increases, especially as firms pass on input costs.
Retail inflation moved up marginally to 10.36 per cent in May on account of increase in prices of vegetables, edible oils and milk.
Notwithstanding the fact that the country's pharmaceutical (pharma) pricing regulator has allowed a 12 per cent price increase for medicines listed under the National List of Essential Medicines (NLEM) in 2023, analysts and industry insiders predict that the overall domestic pharma industry will only witness a price hike of 5-6 per cent. This is attributed to higher competitive intensity in the market. Krishnakumar V, executive director and chief operating officer (CEO) of Eris Lifesciences, a domestic-focused pharma company, noted that the NLEM segment experienced growth suppression of around 150 basis points due to price reductions during the January to July period this year.
'If you see the composition of items which are causing this spike in prices, most of them have little to do with the kharif harvest, except for pulses and vegetables to some extent.' 'I don't know on what basis the government is claiming that food prices will moderate in the weeks to come.'
India's manufacturing sector growth recovered from September's eight-month low to 57.5 in October fuelled by faster increases in total new orders and international sales, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from September's eight-month low of 56.5 to 57.5 in October, indicating a substantial and accelerated improvement in operating conditions.
The Consumer Price Index based inflation was at 10.91 per cent in February.
Consider a combination of a base policy and a super top-up policy.
Retail inflation declined marginally to 9.86 per cent in July due to lower prices of spices, cereals and its products although prices of vegetables remained high during the month.
Inflation in protein-based items -- egg, meat and fish -- stood at 14.36 per cent during the month. In oils and fats segment, it stood at 11.72 per cent.
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